tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8310450667755637519.post7742341429803454959..comments2023-10-14T09:40:06.690-05:00Comments on Jean Kazez: Minsky's WagerJean Kazezhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00592593002719828153noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8310450667755637519.post-74664815461744275422010-01-29T12:04:56.455-06:002010-01-29T12:04:56.455-06:00I have always found Pascal's wager to be a goo...I have always found Pascal's wager to be a good defense for the claim that it is rational to believe in God - even if we can't completely prove that God exists. While it prpably can't convince anyone to believe, it may convince you to take a serious look at religious belief.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8310450667755637519.post-26737793574653077872010-01-28T10:51:10.583-06:002010-01-28T10:51:10.583-06:00Jean- the odds don't matter so long as there i...Jean- the odds don't matter so long as there is no gain from betting no. My argument is that there is gain from betting no. <br /><br />Saying the odds are slight makes no difference if there is no gain on the other side of the wager. <br /><br />Say you and I play a game. I flip a coin and you call it. If you call tails and you win, and get nothing. If you call tails and lose, you get Waynehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08627147979307495870noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8310450667755637519.post-39934549839761501662010-01-28T05:48:10.410-06:002010-01-28T05:48:10.410-06:00By the way, in monetary terms, perhaps we should...By the way, in monetary terms, perhaps we should think of how much money 28,000 dollars, invested in a diversified, but conservative portfolio of stocks, <br />bonds, and other financial instruments would bring in 200 years.s. wallersteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17448905469871566228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8310450667755637519.post-59416499202678685452010-01-27T20:16:09.639-06:002010-01-27T20:16:09.639-06:00Wayne, I don't see why you say the odds of suc...Wayne, I don't see why you say the odds of success don't matter. In Pascal's Wager, this is almost true, since the pay off (eternal life) is so huge. In Minsky's Wager, the odds do matter because the payoff isn't that huge. You could get defrosted in 200 years and then get hit by a bus a day later. The odds of successful resurrection have to be pretty good, or you may as Jean Kazezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00592593002719828153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8310450667755637519.post-28579890623569415352010-01-27T18:25:37.392-06:002010-01-27T18:25:37.392-06:00What's more, I, my self, am not an ahistor...What's more, I, my self, am not an ahistorical entity, which can discover a new life project in 250 years: my self, my projects, my joys are all based on a personal history, on being born in 1946, on having the tastes and values of my generation (and of having learned something from other generations), on having friends who in general are of my generation: my self, without all s. wallersteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17448905469871566228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8310450667755637519.post-68532561166389100652010-01-27T17:52:29.146-06:002010-01-27T17:52:29.146-06:00Pascal's Wager is a good inductive argumentati...Pascal's Wager is a good inductive argumentative form.... So it really pans out depending on what we stick in it. God doesn't work as well as Pascal would like it to. But cryonics is a much more compelling case for it.<br /><br />The odds really don't matter for Pascal's wager to work. The odds of the power company or the company I freeze myself at still being in business is Waynehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08627147979307495870noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8310450667755637519.post-56319306476924279342010-01-27T17:24:15.985-06:002010-01-27T17:24:15.985-06:00I'm a lot less trusting than Mr. Minsky. Fir...I'm a lot less trusting than Mr. Minsky. First of all, what if the company goes bankrupt? What if there is a massive power failure and the refrigeration can no longer function? What if the company starts to cheat and to lower electricity costs turns the refrigeration off at night, as lots of supermarkets do? After all, the current management will not be around in 200 years, so no s. wallersteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17448905469871566228noreply@blogger.com